HVAC customer retention benchmarks, 2026.
The best published estimate is that an average HVAC contractor loses about 11% of its customer database every year, and roughly 7 of those 11 points are customers who simply never heard from the shop again. On the one platform dataset available, adding email reminders to auto-renew lifted service-agreement renewals from 42.4% to 49.1%. This page collects every retention figure we could trace to a source, says what each one is and is not, and turns them into a simple loss model you can run on your own list.
Sourced figures, in one table.
| Metric | Published figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Share of an HVAC contractor’s customer database lost per year | 11% (about 7 of those 11 points: customers who felt nobody followed up) | ACHR News ↗ |
| Commercial service agreements renewed at end of term, ServiceTitan platform, Jan 2026 | 37% overall; 29.8% with manual renewals; 42.4% with auto-renew; 49.1% with auto-renew plus email reminders | ServiceTitan data, as summarized by Marketing Clerics ↗ |
| Annual churn, agreement customers vs non-members | 12–18% vs 40–60% (Level’s own benchmarking of 2,200+ service businesses, not an industry census) | Cube Creative citing Level ↗ |
| Residential maintenance-agreement renewal, one named contractor | 83% on about 1,600 agreements (DiFilippo Service Co., PA) | ACHR News ↗ |
| Response to a reactivation campaign, unsold estimates | 5.5% (3.8% across 3 campaigns), multi-channel, vendor-reported | ClearLine Revenue case study ↗ |
What 11% a year costs, by list size.
Second Season’s own calculation from the ACHR figure above. It is a model, not client data: we have no client results yet.
| Customer list size | Lost per year at 11% | Of those, “nobody followed up” (7%) | Lost tickets at $350 avg* |
|---|---|---|---|
| 500 | 55 | 35 | $12,250 |
| 1,000 | 110 | 70 | $24,500 |
| 2,500 | 275 | 175 | $61,250 |
| 5,000 | 550 | 350 | $122,500 |
*$350 is an assumed single service ticket for illustration, not a measured Tulsa figure. Replace it with your own average ticket. Lifetime value lost is higher, because a lost customer also takes future tune-ups and the eventual replacement.
Methodology
- Searched trade press (ACHR News), software vendors (ServiceTitan, Level) and contractor-marketing sites for HVAC retention, churn and renewal figures, Oct 29–30, 2026.
- Kept only figures we could trace to a named dataset, a named company, or a trade publication. Dropped widely repeated numbers with no traceable origin (for example “repeat customers spend 67% more”).
- Vendor case-study numbers are self-reported and usually multi-channel (SMS, calls, email), so treat them as upper bounds for an email-only program.
- No residential, Oklahoma- or Tulsa-specific retention benchmark has been published that we could find. If you have one, email secondseason@mail.grokbot.com and we will add it with credit.
What the numbers suggest.
- Most churn is neglect, not price: the 7% “nobody followed up” slice is the part a shop can win back.
- Reminders measurably help renewals (+6.7 points on ServiceTitan’s commercial data), though correlation is not causation.
- Agreement customers churn far less, so a win-back email that offers a maintenance plan does double duty.
See how to win back past HVAC customers and public reactivation case studies.
Questions owners ask.
What percentage of HVAC customers do not come back?
The most-cited trade figure, from ACHR News, is that an average HVAC contractor loses about 11% of its customer database each year. About 7 percentage points of that is customers who left because the shop never followed up, which is roughly 70 homes per 1,000 customers per year.
What is a good HVAC maintenance agreement renewal rate?
There is no audited residential benchmark. Named contractors report around 83% (DiFilippo Service Co., ACHR News). ServiceTitan’s January 2026 commercial platform data shows 37% overall, 42.4% with auto-renew and 49.1% with auto-renew plus email reminders.
Do reminder emails improve HVAC renewals?
On ServiceTitan’s commercial service-agreement data, contractors using auto-renew plus email reminders renewed 49.1% of agreements versus 42.4% with auto-renew alone and 29.8% with manual renewals. ServiceTitan notes this is correlation, not proof of cause.
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